Online Personals 'Success'

Mar 22 -- A writer asked me for numbers of 'successes' on online dating sites.  Here are my thoughts.  Success can be defined at 8 levels...  Online dating sites basic 'promise' is to put compatible singles in front of each other, in the real world, on a first date.  The first level of success is with two singles IMing or both emailing each other.  Then, talking on the phone.  #3 is a big step, meeting face to face, and I think most of the people who make it to phone conversations make it to face to face meetings.  Then perhaps they decide to date, repeatedly, make it to 3 months, then 9 months, then to a prolonged committed relationship, then marriage.  8 levels of 'success' if you like.  Now how do the user numbers match up?   

20+ million online daters (not including social networks) for 2006 leading to several million paid online dating users.

1. two people IMing/emailing online - several million daters make it this far
2. two people talking on the phone - 5+ million with at least one phone encounter
3. face to face meeting - 5 million meet face to face
4. active dating, 3 dates or more (sexual) - 4 million actively date one person or more
5. 3 months relationship - 750,000 make it into an ongoing relationship of 3+ months
6. 9 months - 250,000 make it to 9 months with at least one person
7. fiance/prolonged relationship/15 month - 100,000 have prolonged committed relationships
8. marriage - 50-75,000 marriages will result from online dating introductions this year

What do you think?  Way off?  Close?  Your comments please...   Please add your informed opinion and have your own stab at the numbers.  - Mark Brooks